Thursday, November 3, 2016

A632.3.4.RB_LeeDarrell - Reflections on Decision Making

We have been focusing this week on frames (of mind). “The frames we use to view the world determine what we see, locking us into certain ideas and shutting out new possibilities. We need to actively manager our frames to make better decisions” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p. 131). Basically, any opinion that you have or objective that you make is viewed through a certain frame of mind (think “point of view”). The problem is that sometimes we are unable to either achieve our objectives because of our frame of mind. That doesn’t necessarily even mean that our frame is incorrect but sometimes we need to be able to shift our frame to achieve our objectives. Fortunately, just as we can control our attitude, we can also control our frames of mind. As you can imagine, sometimes this requires quite an effort. It can be difficult to consider a situation through a perspective that isn’t necessarily your natural one but, with time and practice, it can become more natural. It is like the saying goes, sometimes you have to fake it until you make it.

The purpose of this blog to discuss the three major traps that we face with frames. The first trap is often the hardest to detect. Frame blindness is “setting out to solve the wrong problem because you have created a mental framework for your decision, with little thought, that causes you to overlook the best options or lose sight of important objectives” (Klein, 1991, p. 75). The worst part about frame blindness is ignorance to its existence (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001). That isn’t to say that leaders don’t know that frame blindness can exist but rather the trap is that we may be unaware of it in ourselves. We may actually believe that we are solving the right problem and that we have considered all the possibilities when in reality we have not. Several years ago – probably 16 or 17 years ago – I went and I bought myself a motorcycle. I will never forget that piece of junk bike. It was an old beat up 1982 Kawasaki KZ750. You see, I just knew that having that bike in my life was the most important thing to me. When I was on my bike riding around the vast open roads of East New Mexico with my friends, I sure felt complete. Everything spare dime that I had and all of my free time went into making that bike better. As time went on, though, my biker friends all stopped riding for one reason or another. Now we weren’t a gang or a crew or anything. We were just a bunch of young men that liked riding together. One of my friends got orders to Georgia so he moved away. Another one got married and his wife didn’t really want him riding anymore. Another was involved in a serious accident so couldn’t physically ride anymore. So here I was riding this piece of junk bike by myself. I remember riding up into the foothills of the Sandia Mountains one day and it suddenly hit me – I hated riding this bike. I took no joy in it whatsoever. The joy didn’t come from riding with my friends. It came from the personal bonds that we shared amongst us. I was miserable and lonely without my friends. Also, I was really cold because I rode up into the mountains in November without a jacket but that’s beside the point. I was suffering from frame blindness and I was completely ignorant to it. I thought that my objective was that bike when it was actually the friendships that I had. Imagine if I had just realized that from the beginning. Fortunately, the only thing that I lost was my investment in that bike. (I did eventually get back into biking a few years later for the “right” reasons but have since given it up.)

The second major framing trap is overconfidence. We tend to overvalue our own frames while undervaluing the frames of others (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001). The true danger with overconfidence is underperformance and failure to reach our objective (Moore & Healy, 2008). Last year, I was the Assistant Center Leader for my office. (I have since promoted to the position of Center Leader.)  My boss at the time and I had pretty similar personalities and work ethics. We are both very meticulous and well-seasoned in the recruiting business. We had a new command policy directing us to capture a larger percentage of the high school senior market. He and I being well versed in doctrine and regulations and being proficient at system data interpretation came up with an achievable objective and methodology for implementation. A few of our counterparts at other centers, however, came up with slightly less “aggressive” plans and goals. We tried to encourage them to raise their standard to what we were presenting to the commander but they said that we just weren’t going to be as successful as we thought. Unfortunately, they were right. We were so sure that we had the best team and the resources that we needed and we just knew that we were going to achieve our goals and we fell flat on our faces. How embarrassing!

The final major framing trap is the illusion of completeness. Leaders and managers may often feel like they have the full picture and all of the information to plan for their objectives. Though it is still possible that leaders and decision makers are acting in the optimal frame, “no frame is complete; each one highlights and hides different aspects of the situation at hand” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p. 140.).  I grew up in a very politically conservative home. When I got out on my own, I was very set in my ways. I thought that I had the full picture with how I viewed the political state of our nation. I just didn’t see how anybody could ever vote anything but Republican. I remember how anti-Obama I was in the 2008 election. But you know what? All of the terrible things that I believed would happen didn’t happen. I mean some of them did but I realized after a few years of him being in office that he wasn’t some evil man out to destroy the country. Now, I live in New York City which is by far one of the most liberal cities in the nation. My eyes are opened to other points of view nearly daily now! We are about to face another presidential election next week. I see people digging in all around me and the political debates rage and tempers flare. I have seen friendships and families torn apart over differences in the political frames of people. The sad part is that nobody has the complete story! The Democrats are not wrong. The Republicans are not wrong. One party is not better than the other. (I might argue, actually, that they are both equally as vile, though!) Wouldn’t it be great and everybody would admit for a moment that there may be more than one way of solving our problems and that maybe both parties have their benefits? If we could all accept that then we could salvage our relationships and start working together to make a better future!

Relating this all to the blog that I wrote right before this about complex decision making, it is really interesting how this all ties together. We are bombarded with data that we must interpret, face systemic variances, and have multiple stakeholders to consider when forming our frames but then we have to understand that the frames under which we are operating are never complete and may never be optimal. What is the ultimate solution, then? How are we to set our goals and make decisions? The answer is that we just have to do the best that we can. We have to swallow our pride and admit that we don’t have all of the answers. We are going to make wrong decisions along the way. That is okay. What is important is that we are able to continue to evaluate our environment and work together to find better solutions. That is why I am no longer affiliated with any political party and I have been known to “flip flop” on issues.


Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. New York:
Wiley.

Klein, G. A. (1991, January 01). Decision Traps: Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and
how to Overcome Them. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4(1), 75-76. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960040106

Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review,

115(2), 502-517. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502

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