Thursday, November 3, 2016

A632.3.3.RB_LeeDarrell - Framing Complex Decisions

I am less than two years from retirement from the Army right now. I have had an amazing career full of excitement, adventure, and camaraderie but I am ready to move on. Now is about the time that I need to start networking for my next career. (In fact, that is why I am working so hard to finish this particular degree as soon as possible. I need this for my resume as soon as possible but, more important, I need the information that I am learning to ensure my success in the future.) I am very fortunate to live where I do at this point in my career because it has allowed me to become a full member of the New York Athletic Club (NYAC) at the military rate which is an incredible deal. The NYAC is so much more than just a gym. It is more of a social club that happens to have a gym in it and being a member has given me access to some amazing networking opportunities. Most of what we have been studying lately ties right in to the stories that my friends at the NYAC tell me which excites me because it validates my decision to pursue this particular degree (Masters in Leadership). It allows me to see how this information is truly applicable to my future career.

Right now, we are studying decision making in complex environments. When I first dove into the assigned reading material for the week, it was a little hazy to me but I think I have better grasp of the concepts now. I didn’t understand what was meant by a “complex environment” at first but some examples helped me frame the picture. A complex environment in this case doesn’t mean working with a diverse group or working in austere conditions but rather it means environments that are having to rapidly change due to rapid globalization. Some examples used were catastrophic insurance and utility providers. “The environment of business has become a maze of information and Internet-driven change. This change is intertwined with the globalization of economic activity, the attendant growth in the size of companies and markets, the increasing importance of knowledge-intensive processes in business activities, and the natural evolution of systemic stress on organizations facing increased competition resulting from these forces” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p. 118). Essentially, complex environments are caused by the “shrinking world”. There are three different factors/methodologies to consider: navigating data, navigating systemic complexity, and navigating multistakeholder and environmental complexity.

The first methodology is navigating data. With the information revolution, managers now have to also become researchers (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001). The book that we use for this class was published in 2001. If that was true 15 years ago when this was written, imagine how much more true it is today. Today, we all have access to all of the data imaginable right in the palm of our hands wherever we go. Case in point – I have my iPhone right here and I just received an alert telling me that rain is expected for the afternoon commute. In her TED Talk, Susan Etlinger (2014) discusses how data is everywhere. However, data are just bits of information that are made by people and therefore require context. She gives a great example of data on smoking. We can look at statistics and tell that people that smoke may face different health risks, have different qualities of lives, work in different fields, come from certain socioeconomic backgrounds, etc. However, without the true context, interpretation of this data becomes impossible. Where you may think that you are interpreting data and making informed decisions based on people that smoke cigarettes, what if I told you that the context was people that enjoy smoking barbequed meats? Context is critical. My friend, Chris, is a hedge fund manager. Before he did that, he was a trader on the floor at the NYSE. He was trying to convince me to try working for his company in the future but to be prepared for long hours. I know that he works about 80 hours a week trying to analyze data to decide when and where to buy and sell. The proper interpretation of data in the proper context can make or break anybody in that industry.

The second methodology is navigating systemic complexity. This complexity is created by the interactions between the organization and everybody else (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001). This is also an effect of the shrinking world. There is very little room for organizational isolation anymore. The best analogy for this that I can think of is the butterfly effect (2014). You may recall hearing about this in different films in pop culture but it is a real theory developed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz to describe how something as minor as a butterfly flapping its wings can cause minor variations in the air around it and those variations cause a ripple effect until entire weather patterns are changed. As organizational leaders, we have to be able to see variances not just in our own markets but also in unrelated fields because that ripple may eventually affect our own dealings. I was running with my friend, Thomas, last night. His family owns a ski resort in the Catskills. He was saying something to me about his family hiring additional seasonal staff because of the subways here in the city. Basically, with the opening of a new line on the Upper East Side and the pending closure of the L line between Brooklyn and Manhattan, they are expecting a heavy migration of young professionals to the Upper East Side which has direct access to the Metro North Railroad which will in turn create more of a demand for weekend getaways. This may not be a perfect example but imagine organizations operating like that based on data collected from interconnected networks.

The final methodology is navigating multistakeholder and environmental complexity. These stakeholders include “competitors, regulators, and public interest groups. These mutual dependencies and the necessity for agreed-upon rules have been described as ‘co-opetition’ (cooperation combined with competition)” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p. 125). I would imagine that this may be the most difficult methodology for some because of the temptation to beat out the competition. In fact, this is pretty much why we have white-collar crimes such as insider trading. Decisions are being made to bypass regulators and co-opetition. Ultimately, though, “the key is to ling this external stakeholder mapping process to company strategy” (p. 127). Recently, I read a book about the deregulation of the airline industry and the robber barons involved called Hard Landing (Petzinger, 1995). The book is chock full of examples of co-opetition. On example that sticks out in my mind in particular was a conversation between Bob Crandall, then in a marketing position at American Airlines, and Howard Putnam, marketing chief at United Airlines. Due to the “adult” nature of the conversation, it isn’t really fitting to re-write here on my blog but the bottom line was that Crandall told Putnam that both airlines should raise their prices as both would be profitable from the ordeal if they cooperated and moved together. Now this is a very famous conversation that was actually recorded and used as part of an antitrust suit but it does highlight the need to consider all stakeholders in the decision making process.

Considering these three methodologies - navigating data, navigating systemic complexity, and navigating multistakeholder and environmental complexity –we have to remember is that the approaches to decision making within complex environments has changed. “The decision maker is preparing to make correct choices in the future rather than on nailing down the decision in advance” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p. 128).




Butterfly effect. (2014). In C. Cleveland & C. Morris (Eds.), Dictionary of energy. Oxford,
United Kingdom: Elsevier Science & Technology. Retrieved from
ntry/este/butterfly_effect/0

Etlinger, S. (2014, September). Susan Etlinger: What do we do with all this big data? [Video
            file]. Retrieved from

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. New York: Wiley.

Petzinger, T. (1995). Hard landing: The epic contest for power and profits that plunged the

airlines into chaos. New York: Times Business.

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