A633.2.3RB_LeeDarrell - Butterfly Effect

I have to admit, I have always been somewhat of a science geek. I especially love numbers and math. In math, there are absolutes. Though it may take a while to work out a solution, there is a definite correct answer and there are definite incorrect answers and there is something very satisfying to me about working through a problem and finding the absolute answer. However, I find even greater joy in working through the interpersonal connections in life which is in a large part why I chose the Masters in Leadership program. I was thrilled this week, though, when all of our studies had to do with science and math. You see, even though the realm of leadership is different from the realm of science, we are still bound by certain rules. If you think about it, it makes sense. We are a part of the world and the world runs are rules.

Our studies – our very scientific studies – revolved around some concepts that most of us have at least heard of in popular culture through literature, art, and film. We studied the “absolutes” of chaos theory, the butterfly effect, fractals, and bifurcations (Obolensky, 2014). When I read about this, I kept thinking of the old Jurassic Park book by Michael Crichton (1991). (Though most of us have probably seen the movie, I still highly recommend the book. It is WAY more exciting than the film.) In the unlikely event that you are not familiar with it, there is a character that studies chaos theory and continues to try to warn everybody that, because of chaos theory, you can’t control anything. He basically claims that everything is impossible to control because there will always be random boundless variations. However, chaos theory isn’t actually just some random space devoid of any rules. There is a certain level of control and predictability but “it is so irregular that to an untrained eye it looks pretty much random” (Obolensky, 2014, p. 68). The character does do a slightly better job at explaining the butterfly effect but I found an even better explanation with a simple YouTube search. The butterfly effect pretty much claims that a butterfly in Brazil can flap its wings and that small push of air will have a ripple effect throughout the world atmospheric system that will eventually lead to enough changes that it will cause a hurricane on the other side of the globe (Seeker, 2016). Of course, this is a bit extreme but the idea is that, in part due to the seeming randomness of chaos, minor variations in a large system can yield dramatically different results. As an example, think of two people that start a journey going the same speed and going in the same direction. What are the odds that those two people will actually remain exactly parallel and side by side for the entire trip? Minor variations can lead to vastly different routes and arrival times. (This reminds me of how I am often amazed at how accurate tunnel builders are when they begin and opposite ends and meet in the middle.)

From what I learned this week, I think that the butterfly effect really may be the most important. Again, we are probably all already familiar with it but have we really considered how minor changes can yield different results? A minor change doesn’t necessarily have to completely change the entire result but it might just change it enough to be noticeable, good or bad. For the sake of transparency – I do want to be totally honest with these blogs as that is the only way that we can really learn from one another – I want to share with you a story how a very minor change that I imposed caused a drastically different negative result. Last year, I had just taken over as the Center Leader for the Manhattan South Army Career Center in TriBeCa (most NYC neighborhoods seem to have these fun names like SoHo (South of Houston), NoLita (North of Little Italy), FiDi (Financial District), and TriBeCa (Triangle Below Canal) to name a few). Right after I assumed control of the center, I panicked a little because production immediately began to taper off. I realized that we were depleting our funnel of qualified applicants so I made a novice mistake and equated greater time with greater production. I immediately extended our work hours by one hour per day for Mon-Thurs. I figured the extra four hours per week multiplied by seven of us would give us nearly 25 extra production hours per week which we could use strictly for processing and building our enlistment packets. I bet you’re thinking that the mistake was that it killed morale in the center. Well, it didn’t really hurt morale too much. What it did do, however, was end up being wasted time. You see, at the end of the day, people are tired and unproductive. The extra hours for interfacing with the public and refilling our funnel of applicants was great but it came at the cost of moving our processing time to a time of unproductivity. Our quality severely declined. The mistakes made all had to be corrected costing us even more time. My decision to add the extra hour was met with enthusiasm (we were within striking distance of closing our yearly mission so the team was actually excited about it because closing our mission would result in lots of time off) but cost us more than we got out of it. That minor change had some pretty nasty results to productivity.

How about a positive story of a minor change? This may sound kind of silly but maybe that is the crux of the unpredictability of the butterfly effect. The changes are so minor that any change seems silly. Back in 2011, I was deployed to Iraq with my unit, the 5^th Special Forces Group. I had suggested one day to my unit chaplain that we invest in the purchase of one of those single-cup Keurig coffee machines. He agreed that it was a good idea so the next time we were in Baghdad we picked one up. We set it up in our chapel so that kind of became a congregating area. Someone then brought in a few board games and it was then official that that was the spot to be. We had an inbedded journalist with us who ran a story on it and someone at the Green Mountain Coffee Company read it and word of that got to the CEO of the company. Today, Green Mountain Coffee provides an unlimited supply to the 5^th Special Forces chaplain for use on all deployments. One minor variation led to a drastically different result.

My friends, we may not know what effect every decision that we make will have. There is no way to predict if a minor change will flip everything around. However, one thing is clear. Every decision that we make can be the change – positive or negative – that turns it all around.

Crichton, M. (1991). Jurassic Park. Orbit.

Obolensky, N. (2014). Complex adaptive leadership: embracing paradox and uncertainty (2nd

ed.). Farnham: Gower.

[Seeker]. (2016, September 21). Is the Butterfly Effect Real?. [Video file]. Retrieved from

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hp8wGQW-Y48

A633.1.2.RB_LeeDarrell - Leadership Gap

I feel that it has been so long since I last submitted a blog. I ended up having to drop my last class due to attending the Army Recruiter Center Leader Course which I am graduating this week. I thought it would be hard to regain the traction to keep going after taking a break for a class but I am extremely eager to get back to it again. The class in which I am now enrolled is MSLD 633 – Strategic Leadership.

We are, of course, just beginning this class so I don’t have a full grasp of even what to expect to learn from it. Usually that picture becomes a little clearer around week three or four. What I have gathered so far, though, is that the class presents a unique approach to leadership that challenges our traditional hierarchical leadership structures in complex environments and suggests a polyarchy structure where team players at all levels present themselves as leaders as the preferred leadership approach (Obolensky, 2014). However, for this first blog, the intent for us to answer a few reflective questions without having a grasp of any of the concepts other than what we already know about leadership. In fact, the three opinion based questions presented are on the very first page of text.

The first question presented is how my own attitude toward leaders has changed in my life. This is such a hard question to answer because my views and attitudes toward leadership are vastly different than what they once were yet they did not just change overnight. In fact, I don’t even think that I can pinpoint when my views began to shift. Just as we don’t have visibly noticeable growth (or shrinkage for the chubby guys like me on a diet) overnight, neither do our attitudes, views, and beliefs change overnight. The change is ever so gradual over the years. Since I was still rapidly changing and developing in high school, perhaps the best beginning reference point would be the start of my professional career. When I enlisted, I had no understanding of the difference between management and leadership. The two were completely interchangeable. I viewed my senior leaders as unapproachable entities that were just in charge of the people that were in charge of me. However, as I advanced through the ranks, I began to realize that there is a vast difference between management and leadership and that leaders are motivational individuals that provide purpose and direction. Therefore, my attitude changed from one of complete subservience to one of willful teamwork.

When we consider the changes in views and attitudes toward leaders between generations as a whole (i.e. comparing the views that our grandparents had versus the views that our parents had and now what today’s generation has), we can see a trend toward a lack of respect. Granted, that is a very subjective statement and others may disagree with me but I imagine that the majority would agree that respect for authority has waned over the years. I remember the stories that my father would tell me – things like, “Son, if I ever talked to my mother that way, I would be whooped so hard that I wouldn’t be able to sit for a week!” Of course, it seemed that my attitude correction ended with that. I suppose that shows a trend toward tolerance of the questioning of authority and a celebration of independence. As an Army recruiter, I interact with today’s youth on a daily basis and can tell that their view toward those in roles of authority and leadership would not be tolerated when I was their age. However, though there is a negative connotation with this change, perhaps there is a silver lining. Perhaps part of the rejection of traditional authority and leadership stems more from an increase of information. As an example of this, think back to the Civil Rights movement. Do you think that Rosa Parks was the first to refuse to move on the bus or that Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., was the first to speak of equality? Of course they weren’t but the news traveled and inspired others. I am not trying to equate the perceived rejection of authority in today’s youth with Civil Rights heroes but perhaps part of the “rebellion” stems from the immediate availability of information. Perhaps we are not trending so much toward a rejection of authority and leadership so much as trending toward the need for justification and validation of directions.

Today, we live in a world that is fascinated with the study of leadership. In fact, leadership training is a rapidly developing industry. In part, this is because “we have changed the context of leadership faster than we have changed our assumptions about what leadership actually is” (Obolensky, 2014, p. 20). This lack of definition has caused a vast gap in the quality of established and developing leaders today. My opinions about the above questions logically explain part of this quality gap. However, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing as new approaches to leadership are developing that challenge traditional thinking. Think back to the first generation of any new superior product. The first-generation iPhone was revolutionary but is completely obsolete today. The first hybrid cars flopped. The first high definition televisions were luxury items available only to the super wealthy. Perhaps this new breed of leaders is still in the early stages of development but will soon replace the established hierarchy of leadership. I am excited to discover if this next class supports or refutes my opinions. 

Obolensky, N. (2014). Complex adaptive leadership: embracing paradox and uncertainty (2nd

ed.). Farnham: Gower.